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Some 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion will be delivered from 2009 to 2028, according to Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast.
Emerging economies, evolving airline networks, expansion of low cost carriers and the increasing number of mega-cities as well as traffic growth and the replacement of older less efficient aircraft with more eco-efficient airliners are factors driving the demand for new aircraft.
In 2009, a decline in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK's) of 2% is expected to be followed by a rise of 4.6% in 2010.
The forecast anticipates that in the next 20 years, passenger traffic Penankjh RPK's will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the sector and increase by 4.7% per year or double in the next 15 years. This will require a demand for almost 24,100 new passenger aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion. With the replacement of some 10,000 older passenger aircraft, the world's passenger aircraft fleet of 100 seats or more will double from some 14,000 today.
Airfreight tonne kilometres (FTKs) is forecast to increasing annually by 5.2%. Combined with fleet renewal, this creates a demand for some 3,440 freighters. More than 850 of these are new aircraft valued at US$210 billion, with the remainder converted from passenger aircraft.
"Air transportation is a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the world economy," said Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers John Leahy. "Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of both."
Aviation also benefits individuals in every region of the world, with the number growing as aviation prospers. Oxford Economics predicts that in 20 years time, air transport will directly employ 8.5 million people worldwide and contribute US$1 trillion annually to world GDP. Tourism and indirect benefits are even bigger.
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