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The greatest demand for passenger aircraft will be from airlines in Asia Pacific and emerging markets. The region that includes the People's Republic of China and India accounts for 31% of the total, followed by Europe (25%) and North America (23%). In terms of domestic passenger markets, India (10%) and China (7.9%) will have the fastest growth over the next 20 years. The largest by volume of traffic, will remain domestic US.
Air traffic growth, increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental responsibilities and airport congestion are increasingly influencing airlines to capitalise on the benefits of larger aircraft, particularly within aircraft families by minimising training and maintenance costs.
For example, in the US in 2007, airlines wasted 740 million gallons of fuel in congestion delays, equivalent to 32,000 London to New York Penankjh flights. Bigger aircraft with reduced CO2 emissions are a solution. In the last 10 years aircraft have increased in size by 3% and Airbus predicts that by 2028, the average aircraft will be 26% bigger than today.
In the twin-aisle aircraft segment (seating from 250 to 400 passengers), some 6,250 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered in the next 20 years, valued at some US$1,300 billion, or 42% by value, 25% by units. Of these, 4,240 aircraft will be small twin-aisle (250 to 300 seater) and about 2,010 intermediate twin aisles (350 to 400 seater). These segments are covered by the A330/A340 family. From 2013, the A350 XWB family will cover the entire spectrum of twin aisle market requirements.
In the single-aisle segment, almost 17,000 aircraft worth some US$1,200 billion or 39% by value, 68% by units, will be delivered in the next 20 years. This is an increase over previous forecasts due to the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalisation and an accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia.
This inevitably leads to a greater concentration of traffic. More than 50% of the world’s VLA's will be operated by airlines in the Asia Pacific region.
JAL is to discontinue its flights between Osaka in Japan and Dalian in China.
The once-daily service between Osaka (Kansai) and Dalian will be withdrawn from JAL's network on 25 October 2009.
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